As November draws to a close, bitcoin is up 37% just this month, its best performance since May 2019.
“Even if the market has some froth, bitcoin fundamentals look sound,” the blockchain research firm Chainalysis wrote in a report.
In traditional markets, European shares were steady and U.S. stock futures pointed to a lower open as investors turned cautious after big gains over the past few weeks boosted coronavirus-vaccine developments.
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Market Moves
From a broad 2020 perspective, it’s hardly news that bitcoin in November once again outperformed the world’s major asset classes.
But that’s been happening a lot recently, with the cryptocurrency up an astounding 163% so far in 2020, or roughly 13 times the 13% year-to-date gains for U.S. stocks. Gold is up 17% in 2020.
Yet in hindsight, November may prove to be a crucial month for bitcoin for a few key reasons.
Industry Legend Explains Bitcoins Recent Explosive Rise
First, in a theme that First Mover has repeatedly hammered this year, many large institutional investors are herd followers, driven by backward-looking performance track records, and they often just ape other investors who have previously performed well. The latest announcement of institutional adoption – perhaps the buzziest of buzzwords these days among cryptocurrency analysts – arrived over the weekend from the $233 billion investment firm Guggenheim. November’s outperformance, coupled with a raft of breathless headlines in traditional financial media trumpeting bitcoin approach toward record highs, is likely to entice even more big investors. Even platinum, which is suddenly in vogue because of its potential demand from clean-energy technologies, is up just 14% in November.
Second, bitcoin has brushed off a few market incidents that, in other years, might have sparked a steep sell-off. There were the massive outflows from one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, OKEx, after the lifting of a protracted suspension on withdrawals. There was the news that the U.S. Treasury Department might be considering new onerous cryptocurrency regulations during President Donald Trump’s final months in office. There were data showing that big cryptocurrency investors known as “whales” might be moving their bitcoin onto exchanges, preparing to take profits – and potentially swamping the market. Sure, bitcoin flinched last week. But for a market that’s given so much this year, it took back very little.
Third, the key 2020 investment narrative for bitcoin – that the cryptocurrency can serve as a hedge against inflation and trillion-dollar stimulus packages from governments and central banks, similar to gold – doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. President-elect Joe Biden says he’ll nominate former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to become Treasury Secretary, and as a private-sector commentator she’s advocated for more government stimulus. But with U.S. lawmakers potentially gridlocked, the Fed may have to keep buying government bonds to stimulate markets; U.S. Treasury-bond yields have stayed close to historic lows, on speculation that this is likely the case.
Bitcoin has had a very good year. In hindsight, November may turn out to be its most crucial month.
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